ePDs (enhanced probability distributions) are Metra's new range of multi-model probabilistic forecasting products. These products are designed to:
- Improve forecasts of the expected value outcomes
- Indicate a reliable distribution of potential outcomes
ePDs combine the strengths of the best deterministic and ensemble forecast models available in the world today. The models used include:
- 12km and 20km Meso-scale models
- ECMWF high resolution deterministic and high resolution ensemble
- GFS Deterministic and Ensemble
Information is gathered from all the above models and heavily processed.
Benefits of ePDs
- Provide more accurate deterministic forecasts than any of the individual models that are used as input into ePDs
- Reliably answer questions such as 'What is the probability that the temperature will be greater than 40C'
- Provide confidence intervals for forecasts. For example, 'the 90% confidence interval is 27C to 32C'
Accuracy of ePDs
- ePDs are statistically reliable in order that the probabilities can be trusted.
You can benefit from receiving full ePDs direct to your desktop whenever you need them. The other products in the ePD range include:
If you would like more information on how these products can help you make the right decision and stay ahead of the game then simply click on the 'contact metra' button below and one of our experts will contact you.
